Interesting discussion, thanks for the fun read.
However, as an Australian I feel I should point something out: not even Japan has the privilege of jumping directly to the final round of qualification. If the WC qualification spots are merged, the fairest way of doing it would be to have the OFC champions (read: New Zealand), and perhaps the runners up, join in during the first of the two group stages (i.e. join at the same time as Australia, Japan, South Korea etc).
And a couple of other little observations:
- If AFC and OFC were to merge (and I sincerely hope they do), the new confederation would have 57 members, which is only 3 more than UEFA, so I think the suggestions that a combined confederation would be too large and have to split are a bit exaggerated. As for the travel distances, the first round of qualification is a simple two-leg playoff which would be easy to separate by region. And honestly, I doubt that many OFC nations would be able to get through it to the group stages, so it is really a non-issue.
- Joining the AFC has been almost universally beneficial for Australian football. There is more money available for the game than ever, public interest in the sport is at an all-time high (not including World Cups), and the international interest in our domestic league and players is gradually increasing. Based on how it has affected Australia, I seriously doubt the suggestions that staying in the OFC would be more beneficial for NZ football.
Respect this is your first post but there are massive holes in this.
1: What difference does it make if Japan have direct qualification or jumping a round? This is talking about direct entry from a confederation point of view. AFC has 4 (is that right?) OFC have 0. If Japan are not good enough to get into the 4, not OFCs fault.
2: If they merged, they would still dominate the lower half of the FIFA rankings so not sure what the comparison to UEFA is. Also Europe tends to operate under one market making their confederation easier to manage. India, Asia, South East Asia, Pacific, Australia, NZ.... far too many different areas where there is not a common rule. Also in Europe, if a team revolts, they are out. If Qatar say 'up yours' everyone would pander to them. The politics of the region make it a completely different kettle of fish to Europe because some countries refuse to see the good for everyone.
3: There is more money for Australia primarily because they have a bigger broadcast market. In NZ, there is SKY. They are not paying for sharkty ASBP coverage as it is and joining AFC would not put more money into our bank from a broadcast perspective and also our teams would get less cash/exposure because of no qualifying to FIFA tournaments. Our national league is not of a quality where anyone would want to pay for it, let alone broadcasters outside NZ. We also play in parks, not stadiums where there are more birds than spectators. How can you even possibly sell that to an international audience.
AFC and OFC will not merge. The island nations will not want to give up the little political clout they have. At the moment, its 10 island nations vs NZ and they all make sure their backs are scratched (ask Temarii) They will not surrender that to be powerless minnows in an expanded (and it will only be split into West Asia and South East Asia so....) confederation where no one gives 2 sharks about them and they lose the direct funding from FIFA. At the moment, OFC island representatives sit on FIFA committees. If it was 1 confederation, that would not happen. Merging give them ZERO benefit and they will never vote for it.
If everything you say about merging is taken as universally true, it would have happened by now.