Just a reminder/revisit - to join AFC requires approval from AFC, and approval from OFC for us to leave... Australia got both of those "permissions" after loads of lobbying, hence their move... our situation is different...
OFC will never grant us an exit, as without NZ it is dead and buried, done and dusted... letting Aus leave was a strategic move as the Islands figured they had more of a fighting chance if it's only us to overcome - or more to the point, extra places at FIFA tournies meant they were in with a shout... but without NZ, any shred of credibility evaporates and OFC folds - and politically, none of those involved (other than some people in NZ) want that to happen...
Why would AFC accept us? Australia was seen as bringing a market and some finance (even though they faced a LOT of resistance as the quality of their senior Men's side basically meant an established AFC team faced missing out of a WC every four years) - whereas we don't offer either of those in any great degree... geographically we add more travel/cost... and the All Whites are perhaps getting possibly good enough to challenge for a final qualifying spot from Asia - so why would Asian federations vote for adding another team that could deny them the goodies of qualifying?
In an ideal world, the Asian thing would be awesome - but unless there is some massive fundamental change in worldwide and regional football politics and administrative protocols, it's never going to happen... so thinking/speculating about it is a waste of time...
As an aside, the talk of splitting Asia in two, with "East Asia" absorbing Oceania, would only happen if FIFA created a sweetened scenario that made likes of Japan, South Korea, China and even Australia interested in it, and a similar sweetened scenario that made Iran, Saudi, UAE enticed to split away as a "West Asia" set up... again, anyone see that being likely?
They're certainly never going to do it to help NZ (seen as a developed first world country), or for the "good of football" - they already pump in development money for that, and OFC gives the Island countries chances they wouldn't get as part of an Asian confederation...
Just saying.
Genuine question. What's FIFA's power in all this?
They mandate the World Cup Qualifying paths, ie they could lump two OFC teams into final stage of WC 'Asian' qualifying, and AFC could do nothing?
So there could be a new type of 'Asian' qualifying path for Oceania, that neither AFC or OFC could prevent.
FIFA are not exactly predictable, so who knows what may unfold. How many forecast an expansion to 48 teams? Qualifying path 1982 AWs took, was vastly different to path for class of 2010. I don't think any speculating is a waste of time..................but I do think just accepting that our lot should be solely with the OFC minnows, is very sad for football in NZ.
Realise that NZF or even OFC have very limited influence at the FIFA smorgsaboards. However NZF/OFC could state a case that missing out on the 4 yearly playoff games (include always one high profile playoff game at home in Oceania) and the interest that brings, would greatly reduce the attention & promotion of football in the region. OFC maybe prepared to back that stance, if they could get two OFC teams rather just one team, into later Asian qualifying phases.
That's if NZF were interested at all in trying to have the AWs in some Asian qualifying phase, with big qualifying games at home - and try and grab one of those 8 Asian World Cup spots (grow to 9 if Oceania lost automatic spot?). They have never said much at all about this.
The East Asia - West Asia split is interesting. Many of the West Asia football politicians, have not been discrete with their dislike of having Australia in the AFC. Many hated the fact the Socceroos won the last Asian Cup, and that it was such a success in Australia.
If the Socceroos win the next Asian Cup early next year - expect those stories & general animosity to resurface.
Australia's relationship with East Asian countries (Korea, Japan, China etc) is pretty sound. Don't rule out some type of split.
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