WSW are the longest of long shots, to make the playoffs. But if Perth do win in Brisbane Wednesday night, Wanderers will technically still be a chance when they travel to Adelaide Thursday.
Would need 3 other results (Nix, Roar & Glory all losing their last games) to go their way, plus a 7 goal swing in GD on Brisbane. Basically a major miracle for WSW to make it.
But lets hope for a Glory win verus the Roar, so WSW still have some motivation at least when they seek to beat Adelaide. Having a completely flat Wanderers turn up in Adelaide with their season already over, doesn't help the Nix.
Currently Brisbane 6th (37 pts & GD +9) - two games left WSW (34 pts & GD +2) - one game left
Only 5 of the remaining 9 games are important for us to make the top 6.
BRI WSW WEL BRI NEW BRI WSW WEL BRI Draw BRI WSW WEL BRI PER BRI WSW WEL Draw NEW BRI WSW WEL Draw Draw BRI WSW WEL Draw PER BRI WSW WEL SYD NEW BRI WSW WEL SYD Draw BRI WSW WEL SYD PER Draw ADL WEL SYD NEW Draw ADL WEL SYD Draw Draw ADL WEL SYD PER Draw Draw WEL SYD NEW Draw Draw WEL SYD Draw Draw Draw WEL SYD PER Draw WSW WEL BRI NEW Draw WSW WEL BRI Draw Draw WSW WEL BRI PER Draw WSW WEL Draw NEW Draw WSW WEL Draw Draw Draw WSW WEL Draw PER Draw WSW WEL SYD NEW Draw WSW WEL SYD Draw Draw WSW WEL SYD PER PER ADL WEL Draw NEW PER ADL WEL Draw Draw PER ADL WEL SYD NEW PER ADL WEL SYD Draw PER Draw WEL Draw NEW PER Draw WEL Draw Draw PER Draw WEL SYD NEW PER Draw WEL SYD Draw PER WSW WEL BRI NEW PER WSW WEL BRI Draw PER WSW WEL Draw NEW PER WSW WEL Draw Draw PER WSW WEL Draw PER PER WSW WEL SYD NEW PER WSW WEL SYD Draw PER WSW WEL SYD PER
Bolded combinations should get us 5th on GD (or on GF if GD ends tied)
Personally I'm thinking Brisbane vs Perth draw, followed by Sydney beating Brisbane best chance. But depends how likely you think WSW beating Adelaide is. Not impossible or crazy for WSW to win, but I would be more confident Sydney beating Brisbane than WSW beating Adelaide.
Relying on Newcastle to get a point vs Perth sure would be grim.
Personally I'm thinking Brisbane vs Perth draw, followed by Sydney beating Brisbane best chance. But depends how likely you think WSW beating Adelaide is. Not impossible or crazy for WSW to win, but I would be more confident Sydney beating Brisbane than WSW beating Adelaide.
Relying on Newcastle to get a point vs Perth sure would be grim.
Sydney are missing Redmayne, McGowan and Grant. So I dunno how they will look defensively.
CCM can’t catch SFC for 2nd now. Sydney have a number of AFC games post playoffs.
Expect Corica to send a bunch of kids to Brissy to play the Roar, which won’t help the Nix.
Personally I'm thinking Brisbane vs Perth draw, followed by Sydney beating Brisbane best chance. But depends how likely you think WSW beating Adelaide is. Not impossible or crazy for WSW to win, but I would be more confident Sydney beating Brisbane than WSW beating Adelaide.
Relying on Newcastle to get a point vs Perth sure would be grim.
Sydney are missing Redmayne, McGowan and Grant. So I dunno how they will look defensively.
CCM can’t catch SFC for 2nd now. Sydney have a number of AFC games post playoffs.
Expect Corica to send a bunch of kids to Brissy to play the Roar, which won’t help the Nix.
They have 1 game to get the reworked back line working before the finals, so doubt they send the kids.
Personally I'm thinking Brisbane vs Perth draw, followed by Sydney beating Brisbane best chance. But depends how likely you think WSW beating Adelaide is. Not impossible or crazy for WSW to win, but I would be more confident Sydney beating Brisbane than WSW beating Adelaide.
Relying on Newcastle to get a point vs Perth sure would be grim.
Sydney are missing Redmayne, McGowan and Grant. So I dunno how they will look defensively.
CCM can’t catch SFC for 2nd now. Sydney have a number of AFC games post playoffs.
Expect Corica to send a bunch of kids to Brissy to play the Roar, which won’t help the Nix.
Does feel like a sense of inevitability about it all as things don’t appear to be going our way. Here’s hoping though!
Personally I'm thinking Brisbane vs Perth draw, followed by Sydney beating Brisbane best chance. But depends how likely you think WSW beating Adelaide is. Not impossible or crazy for WSW to win, but I would be more confident Sydney beating Brisbane than WSW beating Adelaide.
Relying on Newcastle to get a point vs Perth sure would be grim.
Sydney are missing Redmayne, McGowan and Grant. So I dunno how they will look defensively.
CCM can’t catch SFC for 2nd now. Sydney have a number of AFC games post playoffs.
Expect Corica to send a bunch of kids to Brissy to play the Roar, which won’t help the Nix.
They have 1 game to get the reworked back line working before the finals, so doubt they send the kids.
You are probably right.
Actually just realised that Corica won't get Redmayne, McGowan & Grant back this A League season. Even if Arnold released them early from the Socceroos this month, they would have to do 2 weeks MIQ back in Aussie. I imagine they will just head from the UAE to Ubekistan for that AFC Champions League group stage hub - that's scheduled to begin late June. Not sure how it will work with the Melb City guys. They are scheduled to play Cerezo Osaka in a AFC qualiying tie somewhere June 21st - seems likely to be delayed.
But what Nix really need tonight is for Glory to beat the Roar. Means that WSW's very slim playoff chances will still technically be alive as they head to Adelaide. So Robinson you think will be compelled to play a full strength Wanderers team in SA. Brisbane win or draw tonight, and WSW's playoffs hope finally end. Then Robinson may give some younger players a run around at Hindmarsh, which wouldn't help the Nix.
Draw is by far best for us, then Perth winning, then Brisbane winning is the worst.
Edit - One advantage of Perth winning, as someone else said above, is that it keeps WSW very narrowly alive which gives them more motivation against Adelaide tomorrow. So it might be nearly as good as a draw, although it does mean Perth would only have to beat Newcastle in the last match to finish above us even if we beat MAC.
Looks like the only Phoenix path left is WSW (who will have nothing to play for) to beat Adelaide away, then we beat MacArthur. Likely nothing to play for on Friday.